Tag Archives: Tom Reilly

How the 15% Rule Promotes Democracy

Professor Ubertaccio stood up for the Democratic Party’s 15% rule yesterday against the combined might of Boston Globe columnists Scot Lehigh and Joan Vennochi. Lehigh argues that the party requirement robs voters of a wider range of voices in the primary. Vennochi criticizes party insiders deciding what the people alone should determine. Professor Ubertaccio replied that in fact the caucus and convention system is a positive boon for self-government.

Let me add two additional reasons to support Professor Ubertaccio’s case. The caucus/convention system adds a counterweight in favor of the citizen versus big money influence; and the organization bolstered by the system pays off politically.

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Luck and Talent in Politics

When I posted Your Next Senator Will Be … last week I was having some fun with the larger point that supposed experts and insiders may enjoy forecasting political events but are often wrong because of the “unknown unknowns” that attend our lives. Two days ago in Algebra of “Your Next Senator Will Be …” I provided a formula evaluating the outcomes of the 2006 gubernatorial, 2010 senate special, and 2012 senate elections. Simple as that equation was I can simplify it further and this time I have the work of a Nobel Prize winner behind me.

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