Tag Archives: Scott Brown

Scott Brown of the Me Generation

I’ve always thought the definitive statement about Mitt Romney was made by Mitt Romney. After legislative Democrats slaughtered the Romney Reform Team in the 2004 elections, Romney told the Boston Globe’s Joan Vennochi “From now on, it’s me, me, me.”

Scott Brown has been sending the same signal, not as bluntly but in a very damaging fashion nonetheless.

Posted in Mass Politics, New Hampshire Politics | Tagged , | 5 Comments

Political Scientists Love Puzzles

At the recent New England Political Science Association annual meeting some of the most interesting work was presented by Matthew MacWilliams. Matthew was a Benjamin Franklin Scholar at The University of Pennsylvania where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa. He is a PhD candidate (ABD) at the University of Massachusetts. His current academic research interests include election forecasting using social media metrics, campaign communications, social media, political behavior, the Supreme Court, the politics of climate change, the politics of health care reform, interest group lobbying of the judiciary, campaign finance, and political campaigns. He was nominated in the fall of 2013 for a distinguished teaching award at the University of Massachusetts. We are pleased to have him guest today, with a provocative post questioning the new conventional wisdom about the lack of effectiveness of political television commercials – like those we’ve already seen in the Scott Brown-Jeanne Shaheen contest. Also keep an eye out for the launch later this month of Matt’s blog HashtagDemocracy.

Political scientists do love puzzles. They are the grist of our academic research mills. But sometimes puzzles that question academic orthodoxy, especially orthodoxy arrived at through seemingly airtight statistical analyses, are left unexamined.

Take for instance the orthodoxy that political commercials don’t matter. This scholarly assertion has grown over the ivy covered walls of academe and blossomed into a new conventional wisdom, voiced in a recent article by Sasha Issenberg in The New Republic, that Senate “Democrats should not be too worried about the inbound negative ads” attacking them this year.

That’s one puzzling whopper of a recommendation that may have taken the findings of academic studies a bit further than is warranted.

Posted in New Hampshire Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Could an early Brown implosion spare Baker?

The recent wave of good news about Obamacare has complicated Republican plans to ride opposition to the President’s singular legislative accomplishment back into the majority in the US Senate. Nowhere is this more in evidence than the New Hampshire US Senate campaign trail.

Posted in Mass Politics, New Hampshire Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Baker’s Brown Problem

In today’s Boston Globe Frank Phillips writes that “Scott Brown’s entrance into New Hampshire’s US Senate race has created a political and media firestorm that some analysts believe will damage critical underpinnings of Charlie Baker’s gubernatorial candidacy in Massachusetts.”

Posted in Mass Politics, New Hampshire Politics, Political Analysis in the Media, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Another tactical mistake by Brown or ill-advised Sununu ad lib?

Has Scott Brown’s hired the same folks for his latest senate bid who counseled him to mock Elizabeth Warren at every opportunity by calling her “professor?” It sure looks that way.

Posted in New Hampshire Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , , | 4 Comments

Brown’s misstep might show Democrats the way forward

Public opinion polling data indicates that the American people have quite a few misgivings about the law known as “Obamacare.” So much so that the Republicans have decided to make opposition to what is actually called the Affordable Care Act the linchpin of their national strategy to take control of the US Senate. What Scott Brown is quickly finding out is that this tactic is not going to be quite as useful in New Hampshire as it figures to be in Louisiana, for example. What national Republicans are finding out is that Scott Brown may not be quite as useful for their purposes either.

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Gamble would hurt Baker, but would it pay off for Brown?

If an increasingly partisan electorate, motivated by national partisan cues, is “bad news” for Charlie Baker’s campaign, then I suppose it must be good news for Scott Brown’s fledgling Senate bid in New Hampshire. Of course, I also suppose that Brown’s good news makes Baker’s bad news even worse. Keeping the good news and bad news straight is getting tricky.

Posted in Mass Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Scott the Explorer

Scott Brown has formed an exploratory committee and has discovered that his chances of winning a non-special US Senate election in New Hampshire, while better than they were in Massachusetts, are still pretty slim.

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Oh, it’s on in the 9th! Or is it?

You might be forgiven for thinking the general election is well underway in the 9th District and Democratic incumbent Bill Keating is in trouble.

You’ve been misinformed.

Posted in Cape Cod Politics, Mass Politics, Southeastern Massachusetts Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Does a PPP Poll Show An Opportunity for Scott Brown?

According to a Boston Herald article by O’Ryan Johnson, the appearance of the phrase “coming soon” on Scott Brown’s website along with a recent PPP poll that “found 46% would vote for Shaheen compared to 43% for Brown” are encouraging signs that the former Massachusetts Senator will pull the trigger on a Senate bid this fall in his new home state. I’d say the “coming soon” part may be a good sign, but I’m more skeptical that the results of the PPP poll will push Brown to take the plunge.

Posted in U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments