Tag Archives: Scott Brown

Facebook Forecast: Jeanne Shaheen to Defeat Scott Brown

Tuesday morning we brought you a posting from UMass Amherst political science doctoral candidates Matt MacWilliams, Edward Erikson and Nicole Luna Berns in which they used their Facebook Forecasting Model to predict a win for Scott Brown in the New Hampshire Republican primary for U.S. Senate – not an earth shattering prediction. They have just completed data analysis for the general election and have a daring prediction for the race. Read on for how they see the race, and how they did it.

Early this week, we used Scott Brown’s surging Facebook PTAT to predict that Brown would walk away with the Republican nomination for Senate in New Hampshire. With the primary behind us, we can now apply our full Facebook Forecasting Model to the Senator Jeanne Shaheen/Brown contest. The model produces a weekly two-candidate election forecast. Over time, the weekly prediction also provides a dynamic track of which way a race is moving. Our forecast for New Hampshire predicts that Senator Shaheen is on track to hold her seat with 56% of the vote.

Posted in Mass Politics, New Hampshire Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Facebook Metrics Predict Scott Brown Primary Win

We’ve posted from our friend UMass Amherst doctoral candidate Matt MacWilliams in the past with news of his Senate forecasting model using data from Facebook. Today we welcome another post from Matt and his UMass Amherst colleagues Edward Erikson and Nicole Luna Berns. Their Facebook model is strongly suggestive that Scott Brown will capture the Republican nomination for the US Senate in New Hampshire later today. Of even more interest, they are going to use Facebook to forecast the winner in the Scott Brown-Senator Jeanne Shaheen final. They’ll do this on their blog #hashtagdemocracy and have generously agreed to cross post here. Enjoy this new and interesting approach to forecasting senate elections.

Can publicly-available data from the Facebook pages of candidates for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire tell us anything about who will win come Election Day next Tuesday and in November? If what we learned during the 2012 elections is any guide, the answer may be a whole lot.

Posted in Mass Politics, New England Politics, New Hampshire Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Scott Brown of the Me Generation

I’ve always thought the definitive statement about Mitt Romney was made by Mitt Romney. After legislative Democrats slaughtered the Romney Reform Team in the 2004 elections, Romney told the Boston Globe’s Joan Vennochi “From now on, it’s me, me, me.”

Scott Brown has been sending the same signal, not as bluntly but in a very damaging fashion nonetheless.

Posted in Mass Politics, New Hampshire Politics | Tagged , | 5 Comments

Political Scientists Love Puzzles

At the recent New England Political Science Association annual meeting some of the most interesting work was presented by Matthew MacWilliams. Matthew was a Benjamin Franklin Scholar at The University of Pennsylvania where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa. He is a PhD candidate (ABD) at the University of Massachusetts. His current academic research interests include election forecasting using social media metrics, campaign communications, social media, political behavior, the Supreme Court, the politics of climate change, the politics of health care reform, interest group lobbying of the judiciary, campaign finance, and political campaigns. He was nominated in the fall of 2013 for a distinguished teaching award at the University of Massachusetts. We are pleased to have him guest today, with a provocative post questioning the new conventional wisdom about the lack of effectiveness of political television commercials – like those we’ve already seen in the Scott Brown-Jeanne Shaheen contest. Also keep an eye out for the launch later this month of Matt’s blog HashtagDemocracy.

Political scientists do love puzzles. They are the grist of our academic research mills. But sometimes puzzles that question academic orthodoxy, especially orthodoxy arrived at through seemingly airtight statistical analyses, are left unexamined.

Take for instance the orthodoxy that political commercials don’t matter. This scholarly assertion has grown over the ivy covered walls of academe and blossomed into a new conventional wisdom, voiced in a recent article by Sasha Issenberg in The New Republic, that Senate “Democrats should not be too worried about the inbound negative ads” attacking them this year.

That’s one puzzling whopper of a recommendation that may have taken the findings of academic studies a bit further than is warranted.

Posted in New Hampshire Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Could an early Brown implosion spare Baker?

The recent wave of good news about Obamacare has complicated Republican plans to ride opposition to the President’s singular legislative accomplishment back into the majority in the US Senate. Nowhere is this more in evidence than the New Hampshire US Senate campaign trail.

Posted in Mass Politics, New Hampshire Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Baker’s Brown Problem

In today’s Boston Globe Frank Phillips writes that “Scott Brown’s entrance into New Hampshire’s US Senate race has created a political and media firestorm that some analysts believe will damage critical underpinnings of Charlie Baker’s gubernatorial candidacy in Massachusetts.”

Posted in Mass Politics, New Hampshire Politics, Political Analysis in the Media, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Another tactical mistake by Brown or ill-advised Sununu ad lib?

Has Scott Brown’s hired the same folks for his latest senate bid who counseled him to mock Elizabeth Warren at every opportunity by calling her “professor?” It sure looks that way.

Posted in New Hampshire Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , , | 4 Comments

Brown’s misstep might show Democrats the way forward

Public opinion polling data indicates that the American people have quite a few misgivings about the law known as “Obamacare.” So much so that the Republicans have decided to make opposition to what is actually called the Affordable Care Act the linchpin of their national strategy to take control of the US Senate. What Scott Brown is quickly finding out is that this tactic is not going to be quite as useful in New Hampshire as it figures to be in Louisiana, for example. What national Republicans are finding out is that Scott Brown may not be quite as useful for their purposes either.

Posted in New England Politics, New Hampshire Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Gamble would hurt Baker, but would it pay off for Brown?

If an increasingly partisan electorate, motivated by national partisan cues, is “bad news” for Charlie Baker’s campaign, then I suppose it must be good news for Scott Brown’s fledgling Senate bid in New Hampshire. Of course, I also suppose that Brown’s good news makes Baker’s bad news even worse. Keeping the good news and bad news straight is getting tricky.

Posted in Mass Politics, U.S. Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Scott the Explorer

Scott Brown has formed an exploratory committee and has discovered that his chances of winning a non-special US Senate election in New Hampshire, while better than they were in Massachusetts, are still pretty slim.

Posted in U.S. Politics | Tagged , , | Leave a comment