Tag Archives: Nate Silver

How Realistic Is a Newt Win?

Here’s an interesting take on the Republican nominating process from Nate Silver at 538 Politics, Did Gingrich’s Win Break the Paradigm? Silver considers two competing narratives. First  that Romney will win the nomination because the  establishment confers on him the money and organizational strength that always succeeds in the long haul and enables the establishment candidate to withstand reversals such as South Carolina. The narrative that challenges that paradigm is “this time it’s different” – 2012 is an outlier, Romney is a drab and unappealing candidate, passion runs so strongly for a strong conservative that the establishment loses and the populist outsider sweeps toward the nomination. Part of the traditional story is that a challenger in as much trouble as Newt was following New Hampshire sees his money and organizational appeal dissipate. But what has happened here is that perhaps Gingrich couldn’t raise money, but Sheldon Adelson pumped five million dollars into attacking Romney in South Carolina and that made the difference. And that means “this time it’s different.” So read the provocative article at 538 Politics.

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