Tag Archives: John Tierney
It’s hard to find a silver lining for the Massachusetts Republican party. Not adopting the national GOP platform is certainly a start but when you miles behind, moving a few inches forward doesn’t make you competitive.
Not all weeks are created equal in the presidential campaign. This one is unusually significant for three reasons.
The Globe had a story yesterday about a lawsuit filed against the chair of the Massachusetts Republican Party. This is the latest in a series of problems hovering around the state’s nearly insignificant minority party.
In my last couple of posts I’ve been referencing political science research that discusses how campaigns matter in election outcomes and myths about campaign advertising. But it’s July, it’s hot, and it’s silly season in politics. I have two examples.
Here at MPP we try to entertain and inform while grounding our opinions on social science research. One example is my post Do Political Campaigns Matter? I asked the question in the context of the Brown-Warren and Tierney-Tisei races and linked to some good political science research discussed at the Washington Post and themonkeycage.org. So here is praise to those two outlets for more informative discussion, this time exposing Five Myths About Campaign Ads.
Recently the Washington Post published an article that exposed one of the ugly truths of presidential campaign politics, at least for reporters and the political junkies who avidly follow each twist and turn (and spin). Campaigns don’t matter that much – not Etch-A-Sketch, and not the president’s birth certificate. Political scientists have shown that the fundamentals – the economy, partisanship, and incumbency – matter far more in determining the outcome of a presidential election. So will campaigning matter in Massachusetts, for Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown, Richard Tisei and John Tierney?
On Monday I wondered if the race in the 6th congressional district this year might resemble the elections of 1992 when Democratic incumbents were toppled due in no small measure to issues of corruption and scandal.
Today I a look at another possible model for an upset win on the North Shore: 1972.
John Tierney faces his most credible challenge for reelection since he assumed office and history is not on Tierney’s side this season. The question is whether 2012 is more like 1992 or 1972. I will focus on the former for today and look at 1972 on Wednesday. The issue at the moment is an incumbent Democrat who should win handily but, through a scandal within his family, may help the GOP send one of their own to the House of Representatives.
Congressman John Tierney had a very bad week. Professor Ubertaccio gave his thoughts on the reelection prospects of the incumbent to The New York Times.
The last two times there was an open Senate race in Massachusetts, 1984 and 2010, a member of Congress jumped into the race. Ditto the last time (1978!) the Democrats overtook a Republican Senate incumbent. Not so in 2012.