Tag Archives: Charlie Baker

Early Guv Race Polls Survey the Wrong Population

As far as I’m concerned the public polls to date on the Massachusetts governor’s race are little more than practice sessions for the pollsters, who use these preliminary surveys to fine tune their operations. Nothing in these polls is (or should be) impacting the game plans of any of the viable candidates in the race. As predictors of performance, I’d say these early polls are probably about as useful as the seeding’s in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Posted in Mass Politics, Political Analysis in the Media | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

Fisher v. Massachusetts GOP: What to Expect Today?

What might we expect when hearings resume today before Superior Court Judge Douglas Wilkins in the law suit brought by Mark Fisher against the Massachusetts Republican Party? I’ll be waiting by the twitter feed but Stephanie Ebbert of the Boston Globe reported on last week’s hearing and gave some sense of what to look for today.

Posted in Mass Politics | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Charlie Baker’s Word Cloud

Is a word cloud worth a thousand words? Maybe, when the word is “Republican.”

Party polarization has been a big issue lately and it probably isn’t going to help Republicans in Massachusetts in 2012. That (R) following his name helped cost Scott Brown the 2012 senate race against Elizabeth Warren and drove him from the state in quest of a senate seat he could win. In Tisei, Baker, and the Tea Party “Smear” I wrote of the problem the Republican Party brand presents in Massachusetts. In Charlie, I Have Good News and Bad News and in What Deval Patrick’s 2010 Win Might Tell Us About 2014 I wrote about how increasing polarization in governor’s races may harm Charlie Baker’s prospects. So I was pretty interested to see this word cloud accompanying a new UMass Poll from our friends Professors Brian F. Schaffner, Ray LaRaja, and Tatishe Ntete from UMass Amherst. Feast your eyes:

Posted in Mass Politics | Tagged | 7 Comments

What Deval Patrick’s 2010 Win May Tell Us About 2014

I was just wondering – exactly how did Governor Deval Patrick defeat Charlie Baker and win re-election in 2010? I know plenty of people have their theories but the governor had some pretty ugly numbers. Or maybe I’ve just been looking in the wrong places.

Posted in Mass Politics | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Driver’s Licenses for Undocumented Immigrants

A few weeks back I criticized a Joe Battenfeld column in which he argued that the issue of driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants would be “a gift” to Charlie Baker. In that post I implied that it may actually be more useful to the Democratic candidate(s) for governor. Thanks to some insightful analysis by Professor Cunningham, I’m having second thoughts about that.

Posted in Mass Politics, Political Analysis in the Media | Tagged , , , , | 6 Comments

The Mass. GOP’s 15% Conundrum: Let’s Be “Reasonable”

The Massachusetts Republican Party has obtained a legal opinion (posted at redmassgroup) from Attorney Michael T. Morley addressed to GOP chair Kirsten Hughes. Attorney Morley opines that the State Committee cannot change the convention outcome to allow Mark Fisher onto the primary ballot.

Case closed? Not so fast.

Posted in Mass Politics | Tagged , , , , | 18 Comments

Charlie Baker’s Endorsement Speech

Did I mention last week that Charlie Baker got the endorsement of the Republican Party for governor? He did, and his acceptance speech provides a sense of what he thinks is important in 2014.

Posted in Mass Politics | Tagged | 4 Comments

What Did Charlie Baker Know and When Did He Know It?

The outcome of the Massachusetts Republican Convention leads to one very important question:

What did Charlie Baker know, and when did he know it?

Posted in Mass Politics | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Would a primary against Fisher help Charlie Baker?

Former Governor Bill Weld, who is now serving as an advisor to Charlie Baker’s campaign for the corner office, thinks that a primary contest with ultra-conservative candidate Mark Fisher would improve the Republican nominee’s chances of winning in the fall. The idea is that Baker would benefit from the comparison between his moderate managerial competence approach and Fisher’s rigid ideological extremism. Is Weld right about this? If he is right, should he counsel his gubernatorial mentee to publicly urge the MassGOP to allow Mr. Fisher’s name to appear on the primary ballot?

Posted in Mass Politics, Political Science | Tagged , , , , , | 12 Comments

Present = Blank = Abstain

I understand that in the controversy over whether Mark Fisher got his 15% the Massachusetts Republican Party is contending that in fact the tally did not include “blank” votes but “present” votes. I followed up on the “present” issue earlier today. Since then a commenter named Anthony has written in to say that I misunderstood the rules governing a roll call vote. For those of you who love the cliffhanger of a good parliamentary rules scrubbing, I copy my answer below.

So, is a present equal to a blank or an abstention, and thus not counted in the vote total?

Posted in Mass Politics | Tagged , , | 7 Comments