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- Headlines for Tuesday, June 18, 2013 » MASSterList on Markey and Gomez: Strengths and Weaknesses
- JeroldDuquette on The Turnout Question: The Last Refuge of Horse Race Journalists.
- Brad Lovoi on The Turnout Question: The Last Refuge of Horse Race Journalists.
- Mass. Senate Race May Be Feeling Washington Scandal Fallout | my blog on Markey Slips on Obama’s Banana Peel
- Conspiracy Theories! | Mass. Senate Race May Be Feeling Washington Scandal Fallout – NPR on Markey Slips on Obama’s Banana Peel
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Category Archives: U.S. Politics
The Turnout Question: The Last Refuge of Horse Race Journalists.
With everything else decisively against Gomez, many in the media have turned to the “turnout” question in a last ditch effort to pretend that the June 25th election might not go as expected. Reporters, analysts and pundits desperate to wring “news” out of this US Senate race are now saying that a low turnout turn may favor Gomez. The thing is, that’s not true.
Is Gomez Anti-Science or Just Anti-Political Science?
In Tuesday’s US Senate debate Gabriel Gomez tried to separate himself from his party by assuring viewers that, unlike some Republicans, he is not anti-science. I’m not so sure that is true. Sure, he “believes in” climate change, but based on his campaign strategy it seems to me that he might not “believe in” political science.
Partisanship in the Surveillance Debate
Professor John Sides at themonkeycage.org has an interesting post Partisanship in Everything: Views of the NSA’s Domestic Surveillance. Here is a table he presents (from Pew by way of the Washington Post):
Yep, when NSA snooped under the Bush administration Republicans were in support and Democrats opposed. With NSA listening/tuning/watching in under the Obama administration Democrats support and Republicans do too, but their support drops by almost a third. Let’s hear from Prof. Sides:
A Tale of Two Polls
The race for US Senate between Ed Markey and Gabriel Gomez is in the home stretch and despite similar numbers the two most recent polls seem to be fueling very different outlooks.
Massachusetts Legislature: Deep Blue, Pale Red
Want to know how liberal our Democratic legislature really is in comparison with Democratic legislators in other states? Or whether our tiny band of Republicans has fought the ideologically pure fight for the past twenty years? Political scientist Seth Masket of MischiefsofFaction and the University of Denver has the answer for you.
Markey v. Gomez: Do the polls portend any surprises? Nope.
A number of prominent media analysts have been wondering aloud and in print why, despite what they see as evidence of a competitive race in the candidate-preference polling, no one seems very energized about the ongoing Special US Senate contest between Ed Markey and Gabriel Gomez. I can’t quite see what these folks are seeing in the polls. According to RealClearPolitics.com, Markey’s average polling lead is 10.6 points with less than three weeks to go. My sense is that seeing a competitive race in the polling data on this one requires one to ignore virtually all of the “known-knowns” in this election. The reality is that the race is drawing little interest or enthusiasm because IT IS NOT COMPETITIVE!
Tamerlan Tsarnaev and the Hindsight Bias
With some news reports suggesting that greater cooperation between intelligence agencies in Russia and the United States could have prevented the Boston Marathon bombing, Congressman Bill Keating has been properly cautious in discussing what might have been. It is a huge temptation to say that if only we knew then what we know now, the bombing could have been averted. But that kind of thinking exemplifies the hindsight and outcome bias in our thinking.
Springfield Republican Editors Phone It In on Filibuster Reform
The editors of the Springfield Republican have chosen phony balance over carful analysis in Tuesday’s editorial about the use of the filibuster in the US Senate to block judicial nominations.
“Cooked” election calls and bad advice
Boston Herald columnist and “Republican Strategist” Holly Robichaud has some advice for Gabriel Gomez. Unfortunately for Gomez, her advice is comically stupid.