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Monthly Archives: July 2012
Mass. GOP in Trouble . . . Again
As I’ve said time and again a functioning democracy needs two competitive parties and we don’t have that here in our sort-of democratic Massachusetts. It is not the Democratic Party’s job to beat itself; that is the job of the Republican Party. But the GOP keeps shooting itself in the foot.
Brown-Warren Polls & Endorsements
The latest poll in the Brown-Warren US Senate race shows very little movement in the race. While Warren’s favorability ratings rose more than Brown’s, there isn’t anything “game changing” about the numbers in this MassINC poll, which was taken between July 19th and 22nd.
Political Silly Season
In my last couple of posts I’ve been referencing political science research that discusses how campaigns matter in election outcomes and myths about campaign advertising. But it’s July, it’s hot, and it’s silly season in politics. I have two examples.
What We All Know About Campaign Ads Is Wrong
Here at MPP we try to entertain and inform while grounding our opinions on social science research. One example is my post Do Political Campaigns Matter? I asked the question in the context of the Brown-Warren and Tierney-Tisei races and linked to some good political science research discussed at the Washington Post and themonkeycage.org. So here is praise to those two outlets for more informative discussion, this time exposing Five Myths About Campaign Ads.
Minority Report
Do Political Campaigns Matter?
Recently the Washington Post published an article that exposed one of the ugly truths of presidential campaign politics, at least for reporters and the political junkies who avidly follow each twist and turn (and spin). Campaigns don’t matter that much – not Etch-A-Sketch, and not the president’s birth certificate. Political scientists have shown that the fundamentals – the economy, partisanship, and incumbency – matter far more in determining the outcome of a presidential election. So will campaigning matter in Massachusetts, for Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown, Richard Tisei and John Tierney?
FEC Deletes Big Money Files
My UMB colleague Tom Ferguson works on money in politics and he, Jie Chen (also of UMB) and Paul Jorgensen have found that the FEC has been purging so-called “dark money” records from its public access files for the 2007-2008 election cycle. Tom, Jie and Paul write:
Professor U in HuffPost
Professor Ubertaccio offers electoral advice to the Green and Libertarian parties in today’s HuffingtonPost.
The Martin Institute at Stonehill will be hosting a two primary election forums for the candidates in the 4th congressional district.

