So why do Republicans have such success at winning the governor’s office while facing ritual disaster in contesting other seats (putting aside the Brown victory for the moment). For one thing, as my colleague Professor Duquette has pointed out, the GOP apparatus has largely served as a talent agency for someone who can win the governor’s office (and its patronage) from the Democrats. But it’s more because we only trust a manager to be governor.
Remember the suburban managers dominate the Governor Party and the urban workers control the Legislature Party. Democrats in the legislature and “the culture of Beacon Hill” have been a ready punching bag for Republican manager gubernatorial candidates. Voters turn to managers in part due to concerns about what might happen if a Democrat perceived as suspiciously attentive to Workers (and their legislative champions) might do in combination with the legislative leadership. Romney exploited such concerns in his 2002 race, arguing that the election of Shannon O’Brien would give the Democrats a “gang of three” (along with Senate President Robert Travaglini and House Speaker Thomas Finneran) who would congregate in a smoky back room and not slither out until the commonwealth’s populace had been properly fleeced.
When a candidate like Deval Patrick comes along who can soothe concerns about managerial regularity while appealing to underlying values of concern for social welfare the Democrats can win the governorship. Patrick was even able to beat super manager Charlie Baker in 2010 because he appeared to combine executive ability, integrity and likeability with the values of the managers. Baker had many of these attributes, but was damaged by questions concerning his role in the big Dig and seemed frozen by the rise of the Tea Party constituency. As for other statewide and legislative offices, the Managers have nowhere to go since the Republicans default on most of those races.
One reason I think Rep. Dan Winslow’s analysis of a possible split between urban and suburban legislators is interesting is for what it could mean for state politics. If suburban legislative power waxes and urban control wanes in the coming years, we might someday see suburban legislators gain control of the legislature. In that case the legislative and governor parties might merge into one Managers Party.
A couple of thoughts:
I would argue that in some ways economic power in the last 15 years especially has been shifting towards Boston and Route 128 and away from both the Gateway cities and the suburban 495 belt. A couple of examples back in the early “Massachusetts Miracle” days the predominent technology companies of the era such as Digital Equipment, Data General, and Wang were all based out in the 495 belt miles apart from each other(Even though it could argued all of them were spawned from Boston/Cambridge universities and all made to their token contributions to the urban core; Digital’s plant in Roxbury and the “Wang” Theatre in Boston). However in Life Sciences todays “predominent industry” all the major players are located in a few block radius of Kendall Square. Even in the more “traditional” technology sector you have seen companies such as Avid move from Tewksbury to a brownfield redevelopment in Burlington and Dassault Systemes move from Concord and Lowell to Waltham. Now in terms of population the 495 belt towns have been the fastest growing and have been for a long time but as the jobs tend to concentrate or “move back” towards 128 and Boston/Cambridge it will be interesting to see if the people do also. Another interesting static is the air passenger traffic at Manchester Airport and Green Airport in Rhode Island is sharply down while traffic at Logan Airport has risen after the completion of the “Big Dig” and the economic downturn.
I think one of Patrick’s sucesses has been to overcome some barriers in the legistlature that has Republican predicessors had been unable to such as in transportation reform. I never though I would live to see the day that the Mass Aeronautics Commission(totally unrelated to Massport or Logan Airport) would see the dustbin of history. As I also mentioned in a previous post you are seeing some legislators such as Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz that are not obviously in one camp or another. For whatever its worth too like many of his age and family status Gov. Patrick and his wife are known to be trying to sell their home in Milton and move into Boston for several years now too.
Tim,
I was mentioning your insight the other day to a friend who knows a bit about Cambridge and economic development. He added to your argument by the observation that he thinks Life Sciences attracts a young, highly educated work force that wants a more urban and diverse environment, and that is being built in Kendall Square. It makes sense to me. There are a lot of relatively new restaurants and bars in the area that cater to young people after work. So it is worth keeping an eye on trends like this.